The Fading Next Generations of East Asia

Picture Source: The Japan Times

Exploring the Complexities of Declining Birth Rates and Social Dysfunction

The countries of East Asia are faced with the challenges posed by declining birth rates and new social stigmas. Today, East Asia holds the world’s lowest fertility rate of 1.2 births per woman, seeing more deaths than births. Factors such as rapid urbanization, shifting demographics, changing socioeconomic factors, and cultural influences have been contributing to this rising phenomenon. Consequently, the growth of the elderly population unravels new concerns and responsibilities for the shrinking youth population to uphold. Delving into the dynamics surrounding low birth rates and the social dysfunction that accompanies them, this article briefly sheds light on the causes and consequences of this pressing issue.

Across the region, several causes contribute to low birth rates. Urbanization and lifestyle changes have shifted priorities, with a greater emphasis on education, career advancement, and individual ambitions. Economic factors, including expensive housing costs, and limited job opportunities, discourage individuals from starting or expanding their families. Balancing economic stability with the desire to have children becomes a significant concern. As a result, more women prioritize their careers in order to uphold demanding living conditions and postpone or abandon having children altogether. A survey conducted in 2022 on housing in Korea reveals that it takes around 14 years for an average-income household to purchase their home even if they save 100 percent of their salary. Per 2023, purchasing a house near or in Seoul, Korea requires an average of at least 912M₩, (€746,304 or $800,000)

South Korea has spent over €195.6 billion, or $210 billion, in multiple failed attempts to boost its birth rate over the span of 16 years. Similarly in China, the state’s recent reversal on its historic one-child policy, now allowing married couples to have up to three children in 2021, did not increase births. In fact, since its two-child policy was introduced in 2016, China has seen a rapid decrease in its birth rate. Nearly half of the population declined, from 17.6 million in 2016 to 9.6 million in 2022.

In Japan, nearly one-third of the population is people aged 65 and older. According to the United Nations World Population Prospects, as of 2050, one in three people will be aged 65 and older in all of East Asia. The aging population creates more pension burden and less tax money for governments, hampering development. East Asia is aging on a rapid scale, and the 4-2-1 family structure (four grandparents, two parents, and one child) will place strenuous burdens on younger generations. Essentially, a shrinking workforce hinders economic growth, productivity, and sustainability. Additionally, the increased dependency ratio places a burden on the working-age population, affecting social welfare systems and intergenerational support structures. Furthermore, low birth rates can contribute to social dysfunction, such as a sense of isolation, decreased social unity, and a decline in traditional family values like care for the elders. Emotional and psychological consequences, such as loneliness and the collapse of support networks, will only further intensify these issues, in turn making people less willing to take the extra responsibility of starting a family.

Low birth rates and social dysfunction in East Asia are complex issues influenced by various factors. By understanding the underlying causes and implementing policy reforms, cultural shifts, and social initiatives, East Asian nations can strive for a balance between individual aspirations and the need for sustainable population growth, social well-being, and harmony to save the far, yet impending fading future.